Mortgage Rates: Gamble As You Shop.

January 6, 2009

Mortgage Rate Volatility slowed a bit in December after record-breaking changes in October and November. The slowing pace of change is good news for homeowners that joined the Refi Boom that closed out 2008. It was much easier to shop for a mortgage rate in the absence of 4- and 5-Rate Sheet days.

A “rate sheet” is a mortgage lender’s active, available-to-the-public mortgage rates for all of its products. This includes 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 5-year ARMs, and the like.

However, rate shopping is not like shopping for a flatscreen TV to watch the BIG game. Mortgage markets are still moving with tremendous velocity, historically. Over the last two months, mortgage rates changed 2.15 times per day, on average — nearly 11 rate changes per week.

In December, mortgage rate quotes “expired” every 3 hours, 39 minutes.

This rapid pace of change is one reason why “sleeping on it” can be dangerous. Mortgage rates may be low in the morning, but by the afternoon, they could absolutely be not-so-low.

Look, I’ve heard it from enough homeowner’s by now that I can safely tell you — unless you’re prepared to accept a higher rate, you may not want to gamble on getting the lower one. A good question to ask yourself is this: “Is it worth a 1/8 percent rate increase to gamble that I’ll find an 1/8 percent lower rate tomorrow?”

Mortgage shopping wasn’t always complicated, but it is now.

In addition to a volatile rate environment, external factors are muddying up the mortgage waters, too:

  1. Guidelines continue to tighten high income households.
  2. Falling home values are making refinances very difficult. Your area is not immune. Trust us.
  3. Rising defaults are pushing private mortgage insurance premiums higher.

In fact, there are very good reasons to consider taking the first low-rate mortgage you find that fits your long- and short-term financial goals. The most important one, of course, is that it’s as likely that mortgage rates will rise in 2009 as they will fall. Forget what the experts tell you — they’re paid to make guesses and they’re often wrong.

In markets like this, a sound piece of mortgage advice is to make friends with a “good lender”. They’re good mortgage lenders for a reason. They’re fair with clients and they provide extra support that you won’t get from a call center. And, most times, they’re cheaper, too.

So, shop for mortgage rates every 3 hours, 39 minutes, or save yourself the trouble and work with a reputable jumbo mortgage lender who’s both fair and knowledgeable. If you ever want a speedy rate quote, call or email me. We lend in all 50 states.

Bailouts:The Money Doesn’t Come From the Moon

December 5, 2008


This is a must read article. Every bailout requires mortgaging our future deeper with the proverbial government line of credit extended by investors and savers throughout the world.
“Be Nice to the Countries That Lend You Money”

I am not a doom and gloom person but you should be watching the value of the US dollar and the cost of our debt over the next few years to see if the mighty American Empire is burning or dropping to an also ran status like France, Italy or Great Britain.

How High-Income Clients Can Prepare For Lending’s Next Big Wave

December 4, 2008

Four times annually, the Federal Reserve surveys 84 banks around the country regarding their general lending standards.

One of the survey questions asks about current mortgage lending standards and whether it’s getting harder, or easier, to get approved for a home loan.

In the most recent survey, 75 percent of the banks said they’re making it harder for “prime” borrowers to get a home loan.

That means you, Mr. Lawyer. And, Dr.Doctor.

A six-figure income with A-plus credit won’t get you carte blanche with the bank anymore. Lenders stopped fighting over the right to collect your interest payments months ago.

Today, they’re more worried about you defaulting. Something about 250k bank and finance jobs toasted in the last year and the deep recession makes investors a little worried. No ONE is immune from the big waves sweeping over the credit markets.

The first wave of lender tightening eased into the books earlier this year. Most changes were focused on the borrower’s individual credit characteristics including income, assets, and credit score.

The second wave of tightened, however, has been completely out of the mortgage applicant’s hands. It’s collateral — the fancy bank term for “what your home is worth”. Banks are very concerned about collateral.

Mortgage lenders read the papers, too, and they know that home values are falling or are flat in most neighborhoods. There’s a recovery underway, but it’s not going to be immediate.

Therefore, many banks assume that the 80 percent home loan made today will be a 85 percent home loan sometime in 2009 and having less than 20% equity in a home is not where the banks want you to be — especially with joblessness on the rise and a loads of unanswered questions about the economy.

For homeowners with jumbo or super-jumbo mortgages, this loan-to-value change will resonate deeply. Just this morning, for example, one of the country’s largest niche lenders dramatically lowered its maximum LTV ratios for prime borrowers.

Look at how it changes the borrowing landscape for a condo buyer in Chicago with strong income and excellent credit:

  • Yesterday: 20% downpayment required, second mortgage permissable for 5%
  • Today : 25-30% downpayment required, no second mortgage permissable
  • Sure we have investors willing to gamble a little and do 10-15% down but who really wants a 8% mortgage!? BTW, these are the same guys you see playing 50k a hand blackjack at the Venitian.

In other markets, where home values are more dubious, like California, downpayment requirements can be even higher.

Now, this isn’t to say that prime borrowers won’t get approved for home loans — it’s just meant to tell the street-level story of what’s going on. There are a lot of people in cities like Chicago or Cincinnati that were first-time home buyers between 2002-2006. For those homeowners, the only mortgage approval system of which they know is one that’s based on them — their FICO, income and ability to fog a mirror.

Today, it’s The Triangle + Rock Solid Appraised Value.

This is why prime borrowers are finding it harder to get a mortgage — it doesn’t matter what you look like on paper, it’s what you and your home look like on paper.

The market will likely to tighten further in the near-term so the best way to prepare for is to ask good questions in advance of your actual needs. A proactive plan always works better than a reactive one.

If buying a home or refinancing one is in your plans for December 2008, or January-March 2009, reach out to your loan officer to find out how changing guidelines for prime borrowers can impact you. Especially if you’re a jumbo or super-jumbo borrower. Also, we are very excited to have added a niche portfolio lender that can do a 30Y Fixed Jumbo throughout the country in the low 6% range for the solid “money good” credit client. Contact our office to check out our jumbo mortgage rates for your home purchase or refinance. As always, no pressue and no obligation beyond a short chat.

Credit Crunch: Now with Extra Crunch

November 18, 2008

Over the summer we experienced a restriction in lending guidelines that moved most jumbo mortgages to a minimum of 20% equity requirement. Now the dominoes have really started to fall and within the last week we have seen many of our investors move to a minimum of 25-30% equity either for a refinance or a purchase loan in most major markets.
Remember these are for true jumbo mortgage borrowers above the conforming loan limit with stellar credit, ample savings and substantial provable income. What’s the impact? I would expect to see continued price pressure on the luxury market as buyers wake up to an even more restrictive lending environment. It will continue to tighten or rates will increase(to compensate for risk) until the loans perform and the foreclosures slow. We still have lower down payment niche programs available within various markets but we fear that major moves by national investors will force others to tighten as well in their regional market. If you are considering refinancing I especially encourage you to evaluate your options now.

Get out and Vote.

November 4, 2008

I am writing this on Election Day, and I have been mulling over what it must feel like to go to bed and realize that you may be the next President of the United States. Pretty cool. If you win, you get great perks: a couple of 747’s, a nice house with plenty of staff, great travel, and a huge advance on your memoirs in 4 to 8 years. Unfortunately, whoever wins today will assume office at a calamitous time, when the financial underpinnings of the world economy are terribly fragile. However, a little closer to home, the next President will also have a significant impact on the future of the real estate industry. The way he and Congress navigate the credit crisis, tax policy on capital gains, and address a crumbling infrastructure will be simultaneously precarious and vital to our nation’s future. I hope we, as a people, make the right choice. After all, we deserve it after two years of listening to the longest presidential campaign in US history!

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