The Great Housing Bubble Book
November 4, 2008
THE GREAT HOUSING BUBBLE: WHY DID HOUSE PRICES FALL?
The Great Housing Bubble is a fantastic resource for anyone looking to understand why home prices fell. The writing has exceptional depth and detail, and it is presented in an engaging and easy-to-understand manner. It is destined to be the standard by which other books on the subject will be measured. It is the first book written after prices peaked, and it is the first in the genre to detail the psychological factors that are arguably more important for understanding the housing bubble. There have been a number of books written while prices were rising that used measures of price relative to historic norms and sounded the alarm of an impending market crash. Economic statistics and technical, measurable factors show what people did, but they do not explain why they did it. The Great Housing Bubble analyzes not only what happened; it explains why it happened.
The author of The Great Housing Bubble, Lawrence Roberts, works in the real estate industry, and he lives, Irvine, California, the center of both the housing bubble and the subprime universe. Irvine’s residential real estate market witnessed one of the most dramatic increases in prices of any market in the United States. His unique location and his position in the industry make him uniquely qualified to discuss the housing bubble.
The Great Housing Bubble is an easy read. It was developed section by section through a series of posts on the Irvine Housing Blog. With the feedback provided by 3,000 daily proofreaders, the writing is clear, concise, and accurate. Much of the work reflects the collective wisdom of this large and diverse community. However, the book is also a fully researched and supported academic work. Statistics used in the work are cited, and conclusions are drawn from academic literature and documented in an extensive bibliography and end notes. These academic research papers are used to support the author’s arguments and lift the work from a series of unsubstantiated opinions to a collective, unbiased, and widely accepted view of the housing bubble.
The Great Housing Bubble concludes with a series of recommendations for preventing future housing bubbles. There are both regulatory and market-based solutions. These include changes in standard appraisal methodology, the revamping of our current system of loan standards and documentation, and a call to regulate the sales tactics of realtors. These solutions are carefully explained, and although they would be difficult to implement politically, if these proposals were adopted, future housing bubbles would be very unlikely.
Mortgage Industry will say NO more often.
October 25, 2008
Unlike past revisions in which Fannie Mae tightened debt ratio and credit scoring requirements, however, the newest underwriting updates home equity and home buyer downpayments.
This is consistent with the emerging underwriting philosophy that Collateral is King.
No home equity, no downpayment, no loan.
Effective December 13, 2008, Fannie Mae will enforce the following single-family residence restrictions:
- Primary residence, “cash out” refinances are limited to 85% loan-to-value
- Second home, cash out refinances are limited to 75% loan-to-value
- Investment properties cannot be refinanced without a 25% equity position
Each bullet point represents a 5 percent tightening over the previous guidelines.
Now, to be clear, Fannie Mae isn’t the only source for mortgage money. The others are comprised by the FHA, the VA, and an innumerable amount of portfolio lenders. To date, these groups have yet to announce similar loan-to-value restrictions.
But, because Fannie Mae (along with Freddie Mac) guarantees almost half of the nation’s home loans, it does swing a big stick. Historically, when Fannie Mae gets tight with its money, the other groups tend to follow.
Starting 45 days from now, qualifying for a conforming mortgage will require more home equity than at any time since 2003.
Now, there are a lot of people sitting around right now, waiting for mortgage rates to fall before buying or refinancing their home.
I’d offer a more prudent idea: Just get on with it already.
None of us can predict what where mortgage rates will go. Recession, inflation, whatever — it’s a big mystery. But, we do know with 100% certainty that guidelines will tighten effective December 13, 2008, and it will prohibit Americans from getting access to mortgages.
We know this because Fannie Mae published it on its Web site.
If you’re buying a home or in need of a refinance, consider moving up your timeline. If rates fall after-the-fact, you can always try to refinance into something less expensive. But if guidelines shut you out, there’s nothing you can do about in hindsight.
If you know you need a conforming mortgage or a jumbo mortgage, just take care of it. Great low rates don’t mean a thing if you can’t get qualified. And starting December 13, 2008, the qualifying hurdles are going to be raised.
LIBOR: The Driver of Jumbo Rates.
October 9, 2008
With the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) at record levels, thus hurting short-term borrowing, as well as blowing up many jumbo mortgages linked to the floating rate that have begun to adjust, it’s useful to remind yourself how exactly Libor works. Click image to enlarge.
First Time Buyer Credit: Really a 0% Loan
October 9, 2008
I’ve been seeing quite a few agents and lenders using the $7,500 1st Time Buyer “Credit” in their promotional materials aimed at first time buyers. Be careful out there as many people “explaining” this “credit” to first time buyers are not including the part where it has to be repaid. The first payment of $500 begins two years after you receive the “Credit” and continues for 15 years. If you sell the property at a profit before the $7,500 is paid back, the balance is due when you sell. On the bright side, it does appear that if you do not have enough “profit” to repay the interest free loan of $7,500…it is forgiven.
Excerpted from FAQ’s On the $7,500 1st Time Buyer “Credit”:
“ …Because the tax credit must be repaid, it operates like a zero-interest loan….The program is called a tax credit because it operates through the tax code and is administered by the IRS. Also like a tax credit, it provides a reduction in tax liability in the year it is claimed.”
“…the tax credit must be repaid. Home buyers will be required to repay the credit to the government, without interest, over 15 years or when they sell the house, if there is sufficient capital gain from the sale…if the tax credit is claimed on the 2008 tax return, a $500 payment is not due until the 2010 tax return is filed.”
“…this will maximize the stimulus for the housing market and the economy, will help stabilize home prices, and will increase home sales.”
It’s not that I’m against a stimulus package for increasing homes sales, but you have to wonder how many people see CREDIT and understand LOAN? They really should call it a $7,500 1st Time Buyer Interest Free LOAN. And for all you mortage and real estate professionals, maybe we understand why the government has to call it a TAX CREDIT, but to be sure your clients know the amount has to be repaid, you should call it an interest free loan when explaining it to your clients. As always consult a CPA or accountant for further clarification.
Financial Crisis Has Hit Main Street
October 4, 2008
However, the worst development is adjustable rates have dramatically increased. Bloomberg reports that the international rate banks charge each other for one year loans, known as the London Interbank Offered Rate or LIBOR, moved LIBOR rates to 4.08% as markets were locked up with the meltdown in credit markets. LIBOR was in the mid to low 3% range throughout the summer. If we move to LIBOR rates of 5% range that would push ARMs to about 8%. The meltdown of household names is the best opportunity for people to refinance or purchase as investors want something safe/secure. Nothing is safer in this market than solid credit client's looking for a phenomenal jumbo mortgage rate. Now is the time to refinance as rates are likely to get worse over the next two years and guidelines to get more restrictive. The best rates in a generation are behind us as banks recapitalize and governments work to save a financial system on the edge of complete panic.
About 6 million U.S. mortgages, including almost all subprime home loans and 41 percent of prime ARMs, are linked to LIBOR, according to First American CoreLogic, Bloomberg reported.
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